Zero to crazy in no time

Today's letter from Ken Moore of Oklahoma City starts of in pretty typical (for the Oklahoman) fashion: attacking the EPA and shilling for the fossil fuel energy producers (like OG&E).

Incidentally, Mr Moore is yet another of the paper's part-time columnists, regularly writing right-wing screeds about the "liberal" media, the financial burden brown people impose on us whites, fake Republicans who help Obama, more whining about the "liberal" media, more whining about the "liberal" media (did I say that already?), and on and on and on. Seriously: something like half of all letters published in the Oklahoman must come from just a handful of people who write apropos of nothing to whine about the same five or six things (socialist Democrats! Too much spending, not enough tax cuts! Liberal media! We need to be more Christian! Brown people are frightening!). Would any real newspaper do this?

But back to the letter, Mr Moore begins:

The EPA has said that electricity rates would increase by 10.3 percent by 2020 largely due to its forced dismantling of coal generation plants. A 10 percent increase is only 1.5 percent per year, which doesn't even keep up with present inflation. It seems insane to say with confidence that electricity rates will increase by only 10.3 percent in six years.

It would be awesome if the Oklahoman actually linked to the things people are referring to. If they did, then a person could go to that source and read up on it, perhaps then going further back and investigating for themselves what was said and, more importantly, its context. Then again, one of the missions of the Oklahoman is to have an ill-informed public and doing such things runs counter to that mission.

In this case, though, I think the Oklahoman didn't link to anything because it never really happened. You can search the Oklahoman on-line and not find ANYWHERE where the EPA ever says "10.3 percent" (or even "10.3%"!). Moreover, you can go on Google and read scores of articles and not see the EPA saying anything about 10.3 percent of whatever in 2020. Like, I think this guy heard something on Rush, got really mad, and just shot off this screed. It's completely baseless-- but since it attacks the EPA, the editors were just "hey, let's run this guy's letter again!" and that was it.

Given this, it's impossible to comment more about this guy's statement. Is it "insane" to talk about a 10.3% increase in six years? Maybe. But without context it's impossible to know if Mr Moore is even correctly representing the facts. (It's not like we haven't seen it before!)

So where do we go from here? Well, let's see:

I’d bet that the forecasters aren’t even considering how much more demand there will be for natural gas for electricity generation and hugely increased use of natural gas in trucks and cars between now and 2020. Electricity has to really skyrocket at some point after we destroy our coal plants, never to use coal generation again.

Wait. So Ken Moore of Oklahoma City knows more then EPA analysts?! Like, HE thought of this "supply and demand" thing with natural gas but no one working for the EPA did? It's the height of narcissistic delusion to imagine that YOU are out-thinking the experts on something. Also, like read this report from the US Energy Information Administration. It's just a summary, but when talking about energy prices in their forecasts, they state right there:

In the AEO2014 Reference case, electricity prices are higher throughout the projection than they were in the AEO2013 Reference case. Natural gas prices for electricity generators are higher than those in AEO2013 in the first few years but fairly similar in the long term. Reliance on natural gas-fired generation remains strong, as a result of additional near-term retirements of coal-fired and nuclear capacity, and natural gas prices continue to influence electricity prices. In the long term, both natural gas prices and electricity prices rise.

No need to get into the details about this, except to note that the EIA says RIGHT THERE: "Reliance on natural gas-fired generation remains strong, as a result of additional near-term retirements of coal-fired and nuclear capacity." Let's make the bold assumption that SOMEONE in the EPA MAY HAVE CONSULTED THE EIA when it comes to forecasting such things. (And this is making the even BOLDER assumption that EPA analysts couldn't figure this out on their own.)

So, at this point, it's clear that Mr Moore is an idiot. Any real newspaper would have just tossed this letter in the trash right now because it's worthless. But this is the Oklahoman and so instead, we get to read this:

This is obviously all a manufactured, unneeded environmentalist trick that includes pricing hated automobile fuel out of the market. This in turn would gradually make living in a large city too expensive unless you live in cramped high-rise apartments or condos close to downtown. Long term, this would cause the value of mid- to large-sized homes located away from the city center to plummet, perhaps to near worthlessness.

ZOMFG!!! Wait. This is awesome. So in an instant, we have gone from just factually-challenged idiot to tinfoil hat black helicopter conspiracy guy!! Like, an "environmentalist trick" to make gasoline so expensive that everyone will have to move into dense urban areas?!?! For real?!?! And big homes out in the 'burbs will then become worthless?!? What's next? This guy may as well have said AGENDA 21 IS REAL AND AMERICA IS DOOMED!

It's NUTS!!! And yet some editor at the Oklahoman read it and thought Wow, this Ken Moore guy is really onto something-- let's go with this one! Here is your state's biggest newspaper, Oklahomans. Absolutely crazy.